Ukraine-macroeconomic situation – 26.09.2008

       In July, economic growth accelerated to 7.3% yoy due to a strong recovery in agriculture, bringing the cumulative growth back to 6.5% yoy. At the same time, continuing value added growth deceleration in other sectors gives reason to expect moderation of economic growth to about 6.3% yoy for 2008, despite a record high harvest.

      Thanks to above-target revenues and controlled expenditures, the consolidated budget balance was positive, reporting a 1.5% of GDP surplus in the first half of 2008. Despite good fiscal performance so far, the fiscal outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain considering the sluggish privatization process, tighter borrowing conditions, increased expenditures related to unfavorable weather conditions and government plans to amend the 2008 budget raising further social liabilities.

    Inflationary pressures continued to soften as consumer prices fell by 0.5% month-over-month in July. However, reducing annual inflation below 20% may still be a challenging task for Ukrainian authorities.

      On the back of surging world commodity prices, Ukraine demonstrated record high ex¬port growth. However, the growth of imports kept outpacing exports, triggering further de¬terioration of foreign trade and, thus, current account balances.
Though the economic links between Ukraine and Georgia are quite modest, the recent Rus¬sia-Georgia conflict may have far-reaching consequences for the Ukrainian economy.

For more information please see attached file 

• Ukraine-macroeconomic situation – 26.09.2008
• What's Driving Food Prices? – 22.09.2008
• Global food price crisis : trade policy origins and options – 05.09.2008
• Distortions to agricultural incentives in Europe's transition economies – 05.09.2008
• G8 Hokkaido-Toyako Summit Double Jeopardy: Responding to High Food and Fuel Prices – 08.07.2008
• Double Jeopardy: Responding to High Food and Fuel Prices – 07.07.2008
• Competitive agriculture or state control: Ukraine's response to the global food crisis – 23.05.2008
• World agricultural supply and demand estimates – 12.05.2008
• Presentation of organisation for economic co-operation and development – 27.12.2007
• Presentation of International Foor Policy Research Institute on the theme: «Biofuels and global food security» – 27.12.2007
• State Land Management of Agricultural Land in Ukraine – 17.11.2007

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